QUICKSHIFT USQ4 UPDATE
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Russian oil feeds around a quarter of Europe demand Disrupted supply could push up fertilizer and food prices Russia supplies 20% of global seaborne ammonia market

LNG could ease Europe shortages if Russia supplies cut Record shipments of liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe so far in 2022 Gas storage low in Europe, winter demand 30% higher than rest of year Please attend Emily and Paula's Session, 'How to Square Supply and Demand' on Wednesday, 09 March at 9:00am EST If you are interested in learning more about the ICIS Mechanical Recycling Supply Tracker, or the ICIS US recycled polyethtylene (R-PE) market report prototype, contact them at m or respectively.ДЄny major escalation of the conflict in Ukraine threatens to further disrupt supply in oil, gas and chemical markets, pushing prices beyond their current elevated levels.

Record high prices for recycled resin seen in 2021 and early 2022.

Tight supply on systemically short municipal and commercial collection.

Increased demand for post-consumer recycled (PCR) content from legislation and brand owners.

The US recycled plastic market is in a period of major growth, experiencing several transitional challenges due to increased demand for resin, primarily to be used for food and beverage packaging, but under tight supply of recycled plastic feedstock.

QUICKSHIFT USQ4 UPDATE

In this podcast, ICIS recycled plastic senior editor, Emily Friedman, and recycled plastic senior analyst, Paula Leardini, give a live update from the 2022 Plastics Recycling Conference and Expo.

Recycling and circular value chains could drive local pricing of chemicals.

ICIS adds new assessments to its reports to reflect new ways of trading.

In Europe, US 80% of business is contract, 20% spot Asia almost all spot.

Olefins moved to monthly contracts in 2009.

Europe benzene chain moved to monthly contracts in 2004.

Methanol chain has largely remained on quarterly contracts.

Downstream customers insist on six-month or annual contracts.

Many derivatives had remained quarterly as they sell into automotive, white goods.

Huge uptick in Europe feedstock prices in 2022, particularly styrene, propylene, ethylene.

May revert to quarterly if upstream stabilises.

For April Europe nylon, engineering plastics, polycarbonate (PC), butanediol (BDO) discuss going monthly.

Could this signal the demise of the quarterly contract? Some chemical markets, especially in Europe, are shifting from quarterly to monthly contracts, driven by upstream volatility. China buying 10% more Russian crude oil than in 2021 India bought more than 350,000bbl/day Russian crude oil in April, 5X higher than January Russian crude exports are higher than pre-war, driven by China, India EuropeвЂ™s imports of Russian crude, condensate is back to pre-war levels Demand holding up well in Europe but China may be in recession Tight market means Russian gasoil ban would have dramatic impact Crude oil prices up by 6% since invasion, Europe gasoil up by 35% Europe relies on Russia for around 50% naphtha, gasoil imports EU ban would hurt Russia initially, less as it finds alternative markets Urals crude discount to Brent now $35-40/bbl compared with $1-2/bbl pre-war

Less competitive against Chinese/Indian refiners using cheap Russian product Europe refineries, chemicals would lose access to discounted Russian products Europe refineries may be forced to cut rates in the short term

Europe could source naphtha from other places, but at a cost Interruptions to German chemical supply could impact Uk supply chainsДЄ ban on Russian imports of oil and refined products in Europe would increase logistics costs and exclude refiners and integrated chemical producers from deeply discounted crude oil. UK CEOs expect sales to fall in Q3 2022 for the first time since 2020 Signs that previously robust demand is now faltering UK chemicals CEOs report that it is more difficult now to pass on energy price increases to customers CIA proposes to diverge from вЂњworst excessesвЂќ of future EU Reach developments Main deadline may be delayed from October 2023 to October 2026

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Consultation on extending UK Reach registration deadline published today UK chemical exports to EU are recovering Around 60% UK chemicals exports go to EU, 75% imports from EU

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Disagreement over Northern Ireland protocol threatens free chemicals trade UK no longer has access to Horizon collaboration programme with EU scientists Brexit, Covid, cost of living crisis, war in Ukraine UK chemicals face four horsemen of the apocalypse The UK chemicals industry is battling the quadruple challenges of Brexit, Covid, the cost of living crisis and the war in Ukraine, according to Stephen Elliott, CEO of UK trade group the Chemical Industries Association.

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